Instead of subtracting tax expense from free cash flow, I was adding it back and therefore substantially inflating free cash flow estimates. The other change I made is to decrease the amount spent on CAPEX as the small apps business declines in revenue.
These changes produced a substantially lower per share value for the small apps business of $15 which lowered the worst case scenario share price estimate for NPK to $45 from previously estimated $61. Under this new worst case scenario the worst case scenario downside increases to aproximately 30% from the previously posted 8% downside risk.
Instead of reposting with the correct numbers here is the new calculation.
* DISCLOSURE: I or accounts I manage may be long or short any and/or all stocks mentioned in this post. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. For informational and educational purposes only.
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